Thousands of simulated seasons
We play the whole season, over and over.
Then we count how often each thing happens. Every number on this page is a frequency over simulated seasons — not a prediction, not advice.
UEFA Champions League
The projected table is not available right now.
Browse the competitionsThe five leagues
Each league's favourite, and how often it lifts the title over the simulated seasons.
Premier Leaguethen Liverpool at 19%
Manchester City46.8%
La Ligathen Real Madrid at 39.2%
Barcelona53.6%
Serie Athen Milan at 19.2%
Inter32.7%
Bundesligathen Dortmund at 11.1%
Bayern Munich80.6%
Ligue 1then Lyon at 26.7%
PSG46.8%
How a number gets made
Three steps, and the part most sites leave out.
We collect the data every day
Results, the fixture list, squad ins and outs. From that comes each club's rating: its Elo, its home edge and where it has drifted over the last month.
We play out what is left, over and over
Every remaining fixture is settled by drawing goals from those ratings and the home advantage. At the end of each season the table is sorted by the competition's real tiebreakers.
We count
How often each club finished in each position, on how many points, with how many goals. That is what a probability is here: a frequency, not an opinion. We keep one snapshot per matchday, so we also know how far a number has moved since the last one.
This distribution is not available right now.
It does not know this week's injuries, or the rotation before a European night, or the mood in a dressing room. When a club plays well above or well below its rating, the model takes matchdays to catch up. We say so here because it is the part that decides whether you trust a number.
Champions League
The league phase is stranger than it looks.
Thirty-six clubs, eight matches each, one table. Three things the simulated seasons keep saying about it.
These figures are not available right now.
Seeing is free. Always.
The competitions are there to read with no account. Pro is depth, never access.
Standings, the projected table, fixtures with pre-match probabilities, brackets and season evolution — no account, no limit, past seasons included.
A free account adds simulation runs of your own.
The four advanced views — outcome distributions, change since a round, probability evolution and player projections — plus bigger runs and a priority place in the queue.
A 14-day trial, no card needed.
Before you ask
Is this betting?
No. Punctae publishes how often each outcome happened over simulated seasons, and stops there: nothing to buy, nothing to play, and no advice on what to do with a number.
Do I need an account?
No. Every competition page is public. An account only adds simulation runs of your own, and Pro adds deeper views of the same simulations.
What is a probability here?
A frequency: the share of simulated seasons in which something happened. 24% means it happened in 24 of every 100 seasons we played out.
How often do the numbers update?
After every matchday the rest of the season is simulated again from the new table and the new ratings. Nothing is edited by hand.
What does Pro add?
Four deeper views of the same simulations — outcome distributions, change since a round, probability evolution and player projections — plus bigger runs and a priority place in the queue.
Start with the table you follow.
The competitions are there to read, no account needed. The method is one scroll up.